Mawadda Iskandar

Nov 6, 2026

Neither the subsequent war nor the Iranian strikes on Bahraini territory since March 2026 have shaken Manama’s public commitment to Washington. On 4 October, Bahrain’s Ambassador to the US, Abdullah bin Rashid Al-Khalifa, declared that the partnership had passed the test of Iranian attacks through close coordination with Washington.

US Ambassador to Bahrain Stephanie Hallett likewise reaffirmed Washington’s defense commitments, pointing to extraordinary consultations involving the US, Britain, and Bahrain under the Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement (C-SIPA).

The damage to American military facilities has cast doubt on those assurances. With Bahrain burdened by debt, disrupted industry, and renewed protests, the monarchy may find that its most important ally has also made it a target.

The Fifth Fleet takes the hit

The war exposed the vulnerability of American military installations across the Gulf. Among the most consequential targets was Naval Support Activity Bahrain, headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet and a central hub for American naval operations in West Asia.

The installation supports US Central Command (CENTCOM) and enables the rapid resupply of forces operating across the region. Its position in Bahrain gives Washington a forward logistics and command center close to the Strait of Hormuz, but also places the facility within reach of Iranian missiles and drones.

Iranian strikes damaged the headquarters, satellite communications facilities, warehouses, and other buildings. The damage disrupted operations at a base Washington had long considered indispensable to its regional military presence.

American personnel were evacuated following attacks in the opening days of the confrontation. Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Daryl Caudle subsequently indicated that the Navy did not expect to return in the foreseeable future, while Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao announced a review of whether the damaged installation should be repaired.

With the Bahrain facility out of action, the US Navy relied more heavily on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, approximately 2,200 miles away. Supplies now had to travel farther to reach American forces in the Gulf.

The disruption to supply lines was felt beyond Bahrain. The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln reportedly faced delays in receiving supplies, compounding concerns over crew fatigue after months at sea and the difficulties of sustaining US naval operations across the region.

Bahrain has paid a price for hosting the fleet. The base was meant to deter attacks on the monarchy, but its presence drew Iranian fire to the island, while Manama had little say in Washington’s decision to go to war.

The limits of US protection

Bahrain hosts American forces but has little influence over how Washington uses them. Iranian retaliation can reach the kingdom whether or not its rulers approve of another attack on Tehran.

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Iranian academic Mohammad Marandi has similarly warned that infrastructure in countries hosting American forces could face retaliation if Iranian facilities are attacked, naming Bahrain alongside Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait.

Bahrain’s own military capabilities offer little reassurance. Despite spending approximately $1.47 billion on defense in 2025, equivalent to around 3.1 percent of GDP, Manama remains overwhelmingly dependent on American weapons.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the US accounted for 97 percent of Bahrain’s major arms imports between 2020 and 2024, a period during which the kingdom’s arms imports surged by 898 percent compared with the preceding five years.

US systems dominate its arsenal, including F-16 fighter jets and Patriot air defenses. Bahrain ordered 16 F-16 Block 70 aircraft, while its Patriot procurement included 60 PAC-3 and 36 GEM-T missiles.

Despite its reliance on American weapons, Bahrain has no guarantee of US military intervention. The C-SIPA, signed in 2023, provides for closer security cooperation and consultations but stops short of NATO-style mutual-defense guarantees.

Iranian missile and drone attacks have also taken a heavy toll on the region’s interceptor stocks. Bahrain faced roughly 700 missiles and drones, while more than 2,800 were launched at the UAE. Military analysts have warned that shortages of Patriot and THAAD interceptors could leave Gulf states increasingly vulnerable in another round of fighting.

Speaking to The Cradle, Dr Ibrahim al-Aradi, director of the political bureau of the February 14 Coalition, warns that:

“Renewed war will expose Bahrain to consequences beyond its capacity to confront, given its dependence on western military and political support and the absence of sufficient guarantees to protect American bases.”

Aradi notes that Iran refrained from striking certain sensitive sites during the confrontation, including the King Fahd Causeway linking Bahrain to Saudi Arabia. He believes this restraint spared Manama considerably greater damage.

He warns that such restraint cannot be assumed in another war. If Washington fails to protect its bases, or Bahrain’s Gulf neighbors revise their calculations, the monarchy could find itself dangerously isolated.

A war Bahrain cannot afford

Bahrain was already struggling with some of the Gulf’s weakest public finances when the war began. Years of deficits and borrowing had left the government little room to absorb attacks on the industries that fund its budget.

Oil and gas account for approximately 70 percent of government revenue. Damage to refining and disruption to exports therefore reach directly into the state treasury.

The Sitra refinery, with a capacity of approximately 405,000 barrels per day (bpd), was among the principal targets. On 9 March, state-owned Bapco Energies declared force majeure following an attack on the complex, disrupting a major source of export earnings.

The war also struck Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), one of the world’s largest aluminum smelters, with annual capacity exceeding 1.6 million tons. Shipping disruptions had already forced production cuts before its facilities suffered direct damage. The company subsequently reported a sharp decline in output and sales volumes during the first half of 2026.

The damage extended into the kingdom’s digital infrastructure. Iranian strikes hit Amazon Web Services facilities, affecting a regional cloud computing hub that supports businesses and digital services across the Gulf.

In its October outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects an 11.3 percent contraction in Bahrain’s economy in 2026, while government debt continues to exceed annual economic output.

Foreign exchange reserves have also suffered heavily. Central bank reserves fell from approximately $4.8 billion at the outbreak of war to around $1.5 billion three months later, before recovering partially by September.

Manama has sought to contain the fiscal damage through a consolidation program announced in December, including higher public service charges, increased fuel costs for businesses, new corporate taxation, and reductions in administrative spending.

Falling refining income, interrupted shipping, and weaker tourism have made those measures harder to impose. Higher fees and prices would also shift more of the war’s cost onto Bahraini households and businesses.

Manama looks for another rescue

Unlike its wealthier Gulf neighbors, Bahrain has limited reserves to cushion a prolonged economic shock. Its sovereign wealth fund, Mumtalakat, holds assets estimated at approximately $18 billion, but much of that wealth cannot be readily converted into cash.

The island kingdom is also unusually exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia can redirect part of its oil exports through the East–West Pipeline to the Red Sea, while the UAE has access to Fujairah and Oman possesses ports opening onto the Arabian Sea.

Bahrain’s deteriorating finances have also prompted credit rating downgrades. Fitch downgraded Bahrain to B in February, while Moody’s changed its outlook to negative in April, maintaining its B2 rating.

That leaves Manama looking again to its neighbors. In 2018, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait pledged approximately $10 billion to shore up Bahrain’s finances.

Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg Economics, has suggested that another Gulf bailout is increasingly likely, noting that markets anticipated assistance even before the war.

Manama has reportedly held discussions with neighboring states over fresh support, with Abu Dhabi expected to play a prominent role. An April currency-swap arrangement with the UAE also provided a potential $5.4 billion financial backstop.

Fresh Gulf money could ease the immediate pressure, but it would not erase years of accumulated debt. It could also bring demands for further spending cuts and fiscal reforms.

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He points to public debt exceeding 160 percent of GDP and the kingdom’s growing dependence on its Gulf neighbors to avoid financial collapse.

For Aradi, King Hamad’s decision to thank the UAE without mentioning Saudi Arabia also suggests a change in the regional relationships on which Manama increasingly depends.

Can Bahrain still count on Riyadh?

For decades, Saudi Arabia has served as the Al-Khalifa monarchy’s principal regional patron, exercising decisive influence over Bahrain’s security and economic stability.

That relationship was most visibly demonstrated in 2011, when Riyadh led a Gulf military intervention to support the monarchy against the popular uprising. Approximately 1,200 Saudi troops entered Bahrain as part of the Peninsula Shield Force, helping the authorities suppress the protests.

Saudi influence extends deeply into Bahrain’s economy. Manama receives revenues from the jointly operated Abu Safah oil field, relies on Saudi crude supplies for the Sitra refinery, and depends on the King Fahd Causeway as its only land connection to the Arabian Peninsula.

Bahrain’s decision to join the Abraham Accords in 2020 brought it closer to Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv, opening direct political and security channels with Israel.

The move coincided with widening differences between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. While the UAE expanded its partnership with Israel, Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2023 and subsequently sought to limit the risks of another regional confrontation.

Manama has drawn closer to Abu Dhabi, Washington, and Tel Aviv without reducing its dependence on Riyadh.

Bahrain’s hosting of American military bases and normalization with Israel leave it exposed to Iranian retaliation, while its limited resources make Saudi financial and security support essential in the event of another prolonged confrontation.

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The military and economic costs of the Yemen war have placed further demands on Saudi resources, potentially limiting Riyadh’s ability to provide Bahrain with financial and security assistance during another confrontation with Iran.

Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani has called for restoring diplomatic relations with Iran and demanded that Gulf states participate in any negotiations or regional arrangements involving Tehran.

Yet Bahrain’s close military and security ties with Washington and Tel Aviv complicate any attempt to improve relations with Tehran.

Bahraini opposition figure and political activist Ali al-Fayez tells The Cradle that the monarchy’s future will depend heavily on the outcome of the confrontation.

He believes Bahrain cannot return to its previous position regardless of which side prevails. A US-Israeli victory, he argues, would preserve Al-Khalifa rule but reduce the monarchy to “a facade and a functional instrument,” surrendering political, economic, and security decision-making to Israel.

Fayez also warns that the authorities would continue reshaping Bahraini society through political naturalization and cultural changes associated, in his view, with the Abraham Accords.

An Iranian victory alongside its regional allies, he argues, could instead open the way for a new security order shaped by the region’s peoples, including Bahrainis.

For Fayez, Bahrain’s future is tied to the wider struggle over West Asia’s political and security arrangements, including the possibility of changes to regional alliances and borders.

The streets stir again

As the monarchy struggles with the fallout from the war, its crackdown on domestic opposition has intensified. Since the war began, Bahraini authorities have escalated arrests and prosecutions targeting Shia clerics, activists, and citizens accused of supporting Iran.

According to the Bahrain Forum for Human Rights, authorities carried out 825 arrests between January and August 2026, while a separate Human Rights Watch (HRW) report documented the revocation of citizenship from at least 69 people, including children.

The crackdown has fallen heavily on religious scholars. Mass trials and judicial proceedings target 69 defendants, including 60 Shia clerics. Rights monitors documented that among the 56 defendants currently in detention, there are 47 clerics, most of whom were arrested during the 9 May raids.

The authorities have accused some detainees of links to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), allegations that opposition groups say are being used to criminalize religious and political activity.

In recent weeks, protests have spread across Shia-majority villages and suburbs surrounding Manama. Demonstrators have erected roadblocks and confronted security forces, while police have deployed tear gas and sound grenades.

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Via https://thecradle.co/articles/bahrains-american-shield-becomes-its-greatest-liability