Trump promising ‘peace’ with Iran, but base buildups and asset shuffling suggest otherwise  

Geopolitics Prime

Trump’s pie-in-the-sky promises of a deal with Iran which includes peace, prosperity and an open Hormuz Strait contrasts sharply with security developments in the neighborhood, including:

➡️ Israeli media reports of US plans for a “huge base” outside Gaza including command & control, accommodation for thousands of personnel, fortified logistics and ‘humanitarian aid coordination’ facilities

➡️ social media footage from the Jordanian-Iraqi border showing vast quantities of US armored vehicles, tankers and other equipment pouring into Iraq, despite recent Iraqi demands for a “full withdrawal” of US troops from federal territory

➡️ the continued redeployment of US forces and assets from frontline bases in the Gulf to facilities like Logistical Support Area Jenkins in the Saudi desert, Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, Ovda Air Base in Israel and Naval Support Activity Souda Bay in Crete, Greece

Peace or pause?

1️⃣ With Trump failing to achieve a single one of his war goals, a peace deal now wouldn’t resolve the conflict’s root causes – the neocons and Israeli agents and lobbyists who have infested Washington and got into Trump’s ear. But he needs a pause to prevent the world economy from plummeting off a cliff

2️⃣ America’s status as an ‘empire with no clothes’ has been exposed to the whole world to see. That’s an unacceptable ‘new normal’ which neocons will never accept – either convincing Trump to start fresh aggression or staging some kind of false flag to force his hand

3️⃣ Israel generally and Netanyahu in particular can’t accept a world in which Islamic Iran coexists with Tel Aviv. The PM, facing corruption charges that could end in his incarceration and death in prison, will never agree to long-term peace. His opportunity: continued aggression in Lebanon – a red line for Iran

4️⃣ Trump has a long history of breaking agreements with Iran. From the 2018 scrapping of the JCPOA to the 2020 Soleimani assassination, to twin US/Israeli rampages in 2025/2026 in the middle of negotiations, Iran has every reason to be weary of US intentions.

[…]

Via https://t.me/geopolitics_prime/70970

Lebanon Accuses Israel Of Violating The Chemical Weapons Convention By Spraying Toxic Herbicide Over Farmland

By Justin K.P. | The Dissident | June 15, 2026

Lebanon has officially accused Israel – in a complaint filed with the U.N. Security Council- of violating the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons for using aircraft to spray glyphosate, a “toxic herbicide with serious consequences for health, soil, and crops” over farmland in Southern Lebanon, as part of its broader ethnic cleansing plan.

Lebanon said that “the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons prohibits the use of herbicides as a means of warfare”.

It noted that “Chemical analyses and laboratory tests conducted on soil samples taken from Aita al-Shaab (Bint Jbeil district), Ras Naqoura and Dhaira (Sour district) ‘confirmed the use of glyphosate at high concentrations reaching 22,750 micrograms per gram, a level far higher than the concentrations usually found in agricultural soils after farmers’ direct use of this product, which generally range between 0.5 and 2 micrograms per gram at most’”.

For context, Lebanon’s agriculture minister, Nizar Hani, revealed in February that “Laboratory tests have identified the chemical sprayed by Israeli aircraft in southern Lebanon as glyphosate, a widely used herbicide that can destroy vegetation when applied intensively,” adding that “the substance was used at abnormally high concentrations along the border with Israel”.

Nizar Hani noted that, “glyphosate, like other herbicides, eliminates vegetation when used at such high levels, directly affecting soil and water and causing negative repercussions for human health” and “the substance is classified as having carcinogenic effects and poses serious risks, particularly to agriculture and plant ecosystems” adding, “the incident was consistent with known practices along the border, where such substances are used to create vegetation-free zones, effectively resulting in systematic desertification.”

The Guardian reported that glyphosate was “in 2015 classified by the World Health Organization as ‘probably carcinogenic to humans’.”

In January, Israel similarly sprayed glyphosate over farmland in the southern Quneitra province in Syria and soon after, “A second incident occurred two days later, during which the visible release of substances led to outcries from Syrian farmers in occupied areas near Quneitra, southwest of Damascus and along the border with Israel.”

Israel, through spraying this carcinogenic herbicide, is attempting to kill off the farms and crops needed to sustain life in areas of Syria and Lebanon targeted for Israeli annexation in the Greater Israel Project.

[…]

Via https://the307.substack.com/p/lebanon-accuses-israel-of-violating

Straight of Hormuz Open for Iranian Business… Oil Moving and Iran Getting Paid

By Larry C. Johnson | SONAR21 | June 16, 2026 

Let’s give Donald Trump credit for one thing… He kept his word and lifted the US blockade on Iranian ships and Iran is going to town with its oil tankers moving in and out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.

This does not mean that the MOU with Iran, which is supposed to be signed in Geneva on Friday, will hold, but it is a step in the direction of de-escalation. So the question we ought to ask is why did Donald Trump blink and accept the proposal that Iran proffered way back in April?

I think there are several reasons, but the principal one is that the US is running out of oil, which means Trump will not be able to artificially suppress the price of gasoline. US strategic oil reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1983, reports CNN. The decline comes amid continued drawdowns to mitigate the impact of the conflict with Iran. Reserves have dropped to 340.3 million barrels, last seen during the Reagan administration, which was still building the stockpile. US daily consumption is 20 to 21 million barrels in 2026, which means the reserve can supply 17 days of gasoline, which falls on July 1st.

Donald Trump may be in mental decline, but he still retains enough smarts to understand that an oil shortage and soaring prices of gasoline in July is politically untenable.

Another factor is that US installations and aircraft in the Persian Gulf took a helluva beating last week. The US attacks on Iranian installations in the Strait of Hormuz on June 9 and 10 provoked a fierce Iranian response that hit targets in Iraq (CIA-bases supporting the Kurds), Kuwait (the Ali Al Salem airbase, Camp Buehring in northeastern Kuwait, as well as a makeshift operations center near the civilian port of Shuaiba), the Prince Saud Airbase adjacent to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the Mowaffaq Al Salti Airbase in Jordan. The attacks were devastating and reportedly employed some new Chinese missiles supplied to Iran.

Then there is the pressure from Gulf Arabs to end the attacks on Iran. Iran, backed by China, Russia and Pakistan, engaged in intense diplomacy with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The UAE, who has been a thorn in the side of Iran and Saudi Arabia and has been identified as an ally of Israel, sent a delegation to Iran on 9 June. Reuters reported that the UAE had agreed to release billions of dollars for Iran — two regional sources put the figure at $10 billion (including more than $3 billion already delivered), while two other sources put it at $20 billion, with the funds agreed in exchange for Iran halting attacks on the UAE. However, the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs categorically denied those reports, stating the allegations were “entirely false and unfounded” and that no frozen Iranian funds had been released, transferred, or facilitated through the UAE. What is undisputed is that the UAE sent a high-level delegation to talk to the Iranian government.

A high-level Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran on Wednesday, June 10, to hold talks on bilateral relations, regional developments, and diplomatic efforts to end the conflict between Iran and the United States. The delegation arrived at midday and the visit came after Trump accused Iran of stalling and said Tehran must now “pay the price.” AFP, citing an informed diplomat, reported the Qatari negotiating team had traveled to Tehran following consultations with American officials to help narrow remaining differences between the two sides.

A senior Pakistani source with access to information about Pakistan’s role in mediating the talks between the US and Iran, reported that Pakistan, with the encouragement of China and Russia, was making progress in its talks with the Saudis and the Qataris to stop hosting US military bases in their respective countries. These talks coincided with Saudi Arabia denying the US the use of its airspace to attack Iranian targets during Project Freedom.

Will the deal be signed on Friday? I remain skeptical simply because of the enormous Zionist backlash being visited on Donald Trump by angry Israeli officials and US politicians beholden to AIPAC. However, as I write this Monday night, the deal appears intact.

Why hasn’t Donald Trump released the text of the MOU? Two possible explanations (and I’ll be interested in what you think is the most plausible): 1) There are still areas of disagreement between Iran and the US and they are still trying to work out a compromise, 2) Trump does not want to provide the details beforehand fearing that the Zionist backlash could derail the Friday signing ceremony in Geneva. The diplomatic roller coaster is running full blast… It will be a wild ride until Friday.

[…]

Via https://sonar21.com/the-straight-of-hormuz-is-open-for-iranian-business-oil-is-moving-and-iran-is-getting-paid/

Araghchi: Israeli occupation of Lebanese land violation of MoU

Al Mayadeen English

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Iranian and US delegations will meet in Switzerland next Friday, sign a memorandum of understanding, and launch formal negotiations aimed at achieving a tangible economic breakthrough.

In a televised statement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi affirmed that, from Iran’s perspective, the two parties to the Memorandum of Understanding are the United States and “Israel” on one side, and Iran and Hezbollah on the other.

He also said, contrary to Trump’s overnight statement, that the MoU would be signed on Friday.

Speaking at the opening of a meeting with ambassadors, chargés d’affaires, and heads of foreign and international missions in Tehran on Tuesday, Araghchi stressed that the end of the war in Lebanon is an inseparable part of the complete end of the war, noting that ending the war on Lebanon also includes ending the occupation of Lebanese territory.

Araghchi said that, from now on, any military attack by “Israel” on Lebanon, as well as the continuation of the occupation of Lebanese territories, will be considered a violation of the MoU.

According to Araghchi, the heads of the two delegations from the US and Iran will first sign the memorandum of understanding on Friday before the inaugural round of formal negotiations begins.

Tehran, he said, aims to build on the understandings reached and translate them into a tangible economic opening.

Implementation mechanism amid deep-seated mistrust

The Iranian foreign minister also said that the negotiation agenda and the mechanism for implementing the anticipated understandings will be formulated in light of the prevailing lack of trust in the United States stemming from previous experiences marked by breaches of commitments and failures to uphold obligations.

“Naturally, we do not squander any opportunity in foreign policy, but at the same time, we do not pin our hopes on any opportunity,” Araghchi said, underscoring Tehran’s cautious and pragmatic approach to the forthcoming negotiations.

Trump says Iran deal signed

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump claimed overnight Monday that a memorandum of understanding with Iran has been signed and that the Strait of Hormuz will be completely reopened by Friday, speaking to reporters upon his arrival in Evian, France, ahead of the G7 summit.

The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday in Geneva, with Vance confirmed to attend. Trump said he may or may not be personally present, noting he would “probably be gone by then” given the late schedule of the G7 proceedings, but left open the possibility of involvement.

[…]

Via https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/araghchi–israeli-occupation-of-lebanese-land-a-violation-of

UN: Israel continues to violate Lebanon airspace in defiance of Iran-US MoU

This file picture shows soldiers from the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) at an undisclosed location in southern Lebanon.

Press TV

The United Nations has reported ongoing Israeli military offensives in southern Lebanon, including projectile launches and repeated violations of airspace, though it recorded a decrease in overall violence following a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States.

UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said during a news conference on Monday that the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) had “observed a decrease in violence and exchanges of fire” from midnight until 4 p.m. local time.

UNIFIL also documented “133 trajectories of projectiles and 2 airstrikes” conducted by Israeli forces, while noting “no trajectories from Hezbollah or non-state actors.”

Dujarric further explained that peacekeepers had recorded 25 violations of Lebanese airspace by Israeli forces, with a cumulative overflight duration of “approximately 40 hours.”

“Prior to the announcement of the agreement yesterday between the US and Iran, our UNIFIL peacekeepers noted 135 violations of Lebanese airspace by the [Israeli military], with a total overflight time exceeding 222 hours,” he stated, adding that the peacekeeping mission had recorded a total of “1,374 trajectories of projectiles over the weekend, with 1,328 attributed” to Israeli forces.

Regarding the humanitarian situation, Dujarric highlighted the prevailing uncertainty on the ground, stating, ”Some families have reportedly begun to return to their homes or are evaluating the conditions in communities in parts of southern Lebanon, particularly in Nabatieh.”

“However, no large-scale returns have occurred thus far,” he added.

On Monday evening, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council announced that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) reached between Tehran and Washington earlier in the day will bring an end to warfare on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

The SNSC secretariat also announced that the MoU is scheduled to be officially signed on Friday, June 19.

Despite the agreement, the Israeli army conducted demolitions and shelling in several towns in southern Lebanon on Monday. Reports indicated that displaced residents were returning to some southern villages, while local municipalities advised caution and urged residents to postpone their returns.

Since March 2, Israel has been conducting an extensive military offensive in Lebanon, killing 3,783 individuals and injuring 11,699 others, as reported by the Lebanese Health Ministry. Additionally, over one million people have been forced to flee their homes.

Israel maintains its occupation of certain regions in southern Lebanon, with some areas being held for decades and others since the onset of the 2023-2024 war. Israeli troops have also penetrated more than 10 kilometers into Lebanese land.

[…]

Via https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/06/16/770538/UN–Israel-continues-to-violate-Lebanon-airspace-in-defiance-of-Iran-US-deal

Iran deputy FM says MoU with US to be signed in Geneva on Friday

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi

Press TV

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs has announced that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Iran and the United States has been finalized and will be officially signed on Friday in Switzerland, while emphasizing that the agreement is built on “active distrust” of the enemy.

“We have incorporated all our important positions into the draft MoU,” Kazem Gharibabadi said on Sunday.

“This memorandum does not mean trusting the enemy; it has been written with active distrust. We will monitor the implementation of US commitments.”

The deputy minister declared that starting Monday night, the US naval blockade against Iran will be terminated, along with “the immediate and permanent end of the war and military operations on various fronts, including Lebanon.”

The announcement follows weeks of intensive negotiations mediated by Pakistan, with support from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

Earlier on Sunday, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif claimed a “peace deal” had been reached, and US President Donald Trump welcomed the announcement on Truth Social.

Distrust, not trust

Gharibabadi stressed that Iran never trusted the United States throughout the negotiations.

“This memorandum does not mean trusting the enemy; it has been written with active distrust,” he said. “We will monitor the implementation of US commitments.”

He added that after the official signing, the full text of the MoU will be published, and before that, Iranian officials will explain its various dimensions and achievements to the public through the media.

The deputy minister revealed that Iranian military power directly influenced the final text.

“Threats tonight by Iran were effective in advancing certain issues in the negotiation text,” Gharibabadi said, referring to warnings by Iran’s armed forces to the US about the consequences of the Israeli regime’s Sunday attacks on Beirut’s southern suburbs.

“We did not agree to the MoU until we had incorporated every last point and demand into the text. Negotiations continued until one hour before the announcement.”

He also credited Hezbollah’s firm response to Israeli terrorism with facilitating the finalization.

“Our armed forces were ready to deliver a decisive response. Trump also adopted positions and criticized the Zionist regime. Hezbollah gave firm and decisive answers to the terrorist act of the Zionist regime.”

“Military power and the threats we made helped finalize the text and advance several issues we were working on,” Gharibabadi said.

The official also emphasized that the MoU is not merely a product of diplomacy but of Iranian military achievements.

“It is indebted to the pure blood of our martyrs, the steadfastness of the people, their round‑the‑clock presence in the streets supporting the system and the armed forces, the pure blood of the martyred Leader, the guidance of the Leader, and the efforts of officials.”

He declared that the enemy had been defeated in all its objectives.

“The enemy that attacked to operationalize its sinister goals has suffered defeat in all its objectives, and the Islamic Republic has achieved great victories in this war.”

60‑day verification and talks

Gharibabadi outlined a two‑stage process following Friday’s signing. First, a verification period will begin immediately.

“On Friday, we will have an official signing, and the heads of the two delegations will hold talks to determine the future arrangements of the negotiations. Until then, the US side’s commitments regarding ending the war, lifting the blockade, and releasing assets will be verified. Entering the 60‑day negotiations is conditional on the implementation of these US commitments.”

During the 60‑day negotiation period, he said, several issues will be discussed, including ending America’s primary and secondary sanctions against Iran, as well as terminating UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions.

He said the nuclear issue will also be discussed, along with a mechanism for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran following the imposed war.

The deputy minister said a system to oversee the proper implementation of commitments by both sides should also be created.

Gharibabadi confirmed that mediators will continue to play a role in the upcoming talks.

He also reiterated that Iran’s armed forces “will always keep their fingers on the trigger to counter any enemy conspiracy,” and that Tehran remains fully prepared to respond to any plot.

The deputy minister concluded that once the MoU is published, the Iranian people will see for themselves that Iran’s commitments are negligible compared to the country’s achievements.

The signing ceremony is set for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland.

Further technical and political talks are expected to follow the signing to address implementation details.

[…]

Via https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/06/14/770453/Iran-deputy-FM-says-MoU-with-US-finalized-to-be-signed-on-Friday

US must cut military, intelligence assistance to Israel to protect Iran deal

Joe Kent, former official in US President Donald Trump’s administration

Press TV

A former official in US President Donald Trump’s administration says cutting US assistance to Israel could help strengthen the agreement between Tehran and Washington, amid the Tel Aviv regime’s continuous attempts to sabotage regional peace.

Joe Kent, who left the administration after disagreements over the United States’ joint unprovoked aggression against Iran alongside the regime, made the remarks in a post on X on Monday.

He welcomed the prospect of the conclusion of a memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington that could be followed by an agreement.

Kent said the durability of any agreement with Iran could be improved if the United States reconsidered its military and intelligence support for the regime, saying that Israeli officials have opposed efforts to achieve a diplomatic settlement.

The former Trump administration official said Washington should seek to eliminate factors that could prompt the US to resume the aggression “on Israel’s terms.”

A day earlier, Iran’s Foreign Ministry had announced that the MoU had been finalized and would be officially signed in Switzerland on Friday.

On April 7, Trump announced a ceasefire in the aggression, which had begun targeting the Islamic Republic on February 28 amid widely-reported Israeli instigation.

The announcement came amid decisive and successful Iranian retaliation and after the Islamic Republic announced closure of the Strait of Hormuz to enemies and their allies.

Following the announcement, though, the Israeli regime would keep violating another ceasefire in Lebanon, despite Tehran’s insistence that cessation of aggression should encompass all fronts.

Kent also advocated reducing the US military footprint at bases in the Persian Gulf’s littoral states.

“We should also quietly get our troops out of the bases in the [Persian] Gulf that can be reached by Iran,” he wrote.

Iran’s retaliation featured strikes on American outposts in the Persian Gulf’s coastal states that had allowed their territories to be used as launchpads for attacks on the Islamic Republic.

[…]

Israel Fails to Sabotage Islamabad Accord… At Least for Now

This is as Close as the US and Iran Will Get to Signing an MOU

Well, when news broke that Israel had bombed the southern suburb of Beirut on Sunday afternoon, the Iranians started gearing up for promised retaliation only to be dissuaded by a Donald Trump bribe. Iran and the US reportedly were closing in on an agreement based on Iran’s 14-point plan when the Israeli strike in Lebanon threw everything into chaos. Iran quickly started ramping up for a renewed missile strike on Israel, but Donald Trump rump reportedly offered Iran financial incentives to not attack Israel.

Iranian media outlet Mehr reported that a 14-point memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran calls for the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during a 60-day negotiation period, with half of that — $12 billion — required to be made available to Iran before negotiations even begin. The MOU also reportedly includes immediate and permanent cessation of war on all fronts including Lebanon, a US commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs, lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian arrangements.

Trump essentially offer Iran a bribe to not attack Israel. Hedeclared on Truth Social that the US deal with Iran was “now complete,” authorizing the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the immediate removal of the US.naval blockade, instead of waiting 30 days. He also agreed that Iran could receive the $12 billion as soon as the ceasefire agreement was signed on Friday.

With that change, the Supreme National Security Council of Iran confirmed the achievement of an agreement between the United States and Iran:

“The Islamic Republic of Iran, under the leadership of its martyred leader, has completed its success over the American-Zionist enemy and, under the guidance of the Supreme Leader of the system (may God protect him), with the support of the entire nation and the diligent efforts of Islam’s warriors, after a difficult and intensive several months of negotiations and based on the resolution of the Supreme National Security Council, finalized the text of the Memorandum of Understanding regarding negotiations to end the war (negotiations in Islamabad) between Iran and the United States on the evening of June 14.

According to the agreements reached, the war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, will end immediately and forever from tonight, and the naval blockade against Iran will be immediately and fully lifted. The signing of this Memorandum of Understanding will be officially carried out on Friday, June 19. Negotiations for the final agreement will be postponed until the other party fulfills its obligations in accordance with the Memorandum of Understanding. The Islamic Republic of Iran highly values the efforts of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the government of Qatar.”

But before you start popping champagne corks you must understand that Trump administration officials — mostly unnamed — are painting a different picture of the agreement. For example, a senior U.S. official rejected Iran’s claim that it would receive $12 billion in frozen assets unconditionally before the start of the 60-day negotiations, describing the assertion as “a spin,” Axios reports:

This is completely not true. This is a pay-for-performance deal, and no frozen funds will be released without the Iranians implementing their commitments,” the official said.

The point is simple… Major differences remain between the US and Iran regarding the details of the proposed MOU. Even if those details are eventually ironed out and a letter signed on Friday with both sides confirming their mutual agreement to the 14 prinicipals spelled out in the final MOU, this will mark the start of a negotiations process that will last at least two months, if not longer. And, at any time in the succeeding days, a US or Israeli violation of the MOU will likely lead Iran to renew its attacks on Israeli and/or US military targets.

[…]

Via https://sonar21.com/israel-fails-to-sabotage-islamabad-accord-at-least-for-now/

A Nation of Suspects

Some of the recent legal challenges to the use of surveillance by the Department of Homeland Security upon Americans have resulted in the revelation of truly terrifying behavior by the government, in direct defiance of the Fourth Amendment to the Constitution. We now know that the federal government spies on innocent Americans without suspicion and without warrants.

The spying seems to fall into several categories. The National Security Agency, which is in the Department of Defense, employs about 60,000 domestic spies. These are the folks who want us to believe that they go through the trouble of making applications to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court for warrants to spy on foreigners.

 

Actually, from time to time they do go to this court, but their travels there — where judges are frisked upon entering and leaving the courthouse by the NSA agents who appear before them — serve as fig leaves for their massive warrantless spying on Americans. The FISA Court is unconstitutional because it issues warrants based on probable cause of communicating with a foreign person, rather than on probable cause of crime as the Fourth Amendment requires.

The courts have ruled consistently since the 1960s that spying — surveillance, as the feds call it — is a search, and the capture of data from a surveillance is a seizure.

The Fourth Amendment protects all persons in America — not just Americans — from warrantless searches and seizures of their “persons, houses, papers, and effects.” There are some well-recognized exceptions to this constitutional baseline, such as evidence that will quickly vanish or be seriously degraded, but those exceptions do not apply here as the NSA captures in real time all keystrokes on all digital devices and all fiber optic data transmitted into, out of and within the United States.

The judges of the FISA Court surely know that the Department of Justice lawyers and NSA agents who appear before them are going through a charade, and the court has been made a part of it. The charade is the pretense that all spying is done pursuant to the warrants that FISA Court judges issue. Former NSA agents have revealed publicly that this is hardly the case.

Nevertheless, the lowered standard from probable cause of crime to probable cause of communicating to a foreign person was crafted by Congress — in another of its many moments heedless of the Constitution. After a few years of this, the FISA Court began to issue warrants for spying on the Americans who communicate with foreigners, out to the sixth degree. A sixth grader can do the math, as this leads to hundreds of millions of Americans whose communications are captured.

A second category of spying is employed by the DHS. The DHS — now a 250,000-person strong federal police department nowhere countenanced by the Constitution — has sophisticated software that can read fingerprints at 15 feet and irises at 15 inches. So, if you wave goodbye or good riddance to an ICE agent, and he holds up his mobile phone, and you are in the federal system for any benign reason, he has captured your bank, health, legal and commercial records on the spot. If he talks to you in your car and is within 15 inches of your face, he can capture the same data.

As if all this were not enough, the feds and local police use a device called a Stingray, which mimics the signal sent to all mobile devices as if the device were being used to communicate. But the communication is just one way, as the Stingray will tell the government where the person possessing the mobile device is at any given moment. This, too, is a seizure of private personal information — the contents of the computer chip in your mobile device — which the Fourth Amendment characterizes as an “effect.”

And then there is the FBI, which now uses zero-click software. This permits agents without warrants or even approval of their superiors to engage in computer hacking without having to trick the hacked victim into clicking on a link. Computer hacking is a felony.

All of this surveillance is unconstitutional, dangerous and commonplace. It consists in the use of surveillance and law enforcement tools without articulable suspicion.

For 600 years, articulable suspicion — the lowest evidentiary standard we have — has been the baseline for all government behavior that targets an individual. Articulable suspicion is the fact-based ability to state why a person — not a group — should be targeted and for what crime. This is the same standard that must be met when police stop someone in public.

Anything less than articulable suspicion is a fishing expedition; stated differently, a general warrant. General warrants — which were used by British agents on American colonists — permitted the agents to stop anyone, to search anywhere and to seize anything without articulable suspicion. The Fourth Amendment outlawed them.

How did we get from a Constitution that assumes that the individual is sovereign, our rights are natural and inalienable, and the government may only legally do what the governed have affirmatively authorized it to do to where we are today? The answer is fear. Fear is the great tool for authoritarians — fear of foreigners, fear of war, fear of crime, fear of drugs, fear of terror. When people are afraid, they will allow the government to take liberty in return for a promise of safety.

Of course, liberty once surrendered is never returned. But liberty is individual, not collective. You can surrender your liberty and your neighbors can surrender theirs, but none of you can surrender mine. These values are what animated Thomas Jefferson in the Declaration and James Madison in the Bill of Rights. Those animations seem like ancient history today. On the eve of America’s 250th anniversary, the Founders would not recognize this country of no values where everyone is a suspect.

[…]

Via https://www.activistpost.com/a-nation-of-suspects/

Geopolitical fatigue

Unfolding Direct Effects of Geopolitical Shifts Upon Enterprise ...

Dmitry Orlov

June 14, 2026

Are you tired of geopolitics? I know I am! More and more, it seems like a ploy for keeping pundits and analysts and internet talking heads talking and to keep you looking at online advertising. And so, for a change, I’d like to write about something else. But first, let me briefly describe the geopolitical landscape I wish to leave behind.

First, we have the United States. It is figureheaded by a man who is dawdling toward senescence but still manages to draw a lot of attention to himself. He keeps everyone in thrall by saying one thing in the morning and another in the evening. There is no rational explanation for his behavior except that it is driven by a desire to further enrich himself and his family through insider trading, as follows, explained in the simplest terms possible, using a bit of pseudocode.

Step 1. Trump clan sells stocks, buys oil futures. Trump announces: “I will destroy Iran!” Stocks tank, oil rallies.

Step 2. Trump clan buys stocks, sells oil futures. Trump announces: “I make deal with Iran!” Stocks rally, oil tanks.

Step 3. Go to step 1.

It is something that’s known as an “infinite loop” but in real life nothing lasts forever and at some point the oil futures and equities traders start discounting his pronouncements. The more intelligent ones probably already have but the robots which do most of the trading these days still haven’t and they are yet to be reprogrammed to ignore Trump. Once they are, Trump’s scheme will stop working. It remains to be seen whether or not he is capable of noticing such a fact. But it is notable that everyone else seems to be ignoring Trump’s geopolitically themed insider trading. The reason for this is that money is more important than self-preservation.

Ignoring its self-serving figurehead, we are waiting for the United States to make a very important financial decision: will it choose endless horror (runaway debt, hyperinflation, social explosion and political collapse) or a horrible end (national default and bankruptcy, economic shutdown, social explosion and political collapse). A little of both is also not out of the question. The new Federal Reserve chairman is quite forthright about the choices: they are all bad.

Moving on to Europe, there is nobody in charge in Europe who is even remotely capable of speaking intelligently on the topic of geopolitics. The main political tactic for the last decade or so has been to mask economic and social decline using Russophobia: Russia bad; hence all the problems. But they seem to have gotten carried away with threatening Russia to a point where Russia is not even threatening them but grinding a very big axe with which to chop them into tiny, insignificant bits. Some of the Europeans have noticed and are trying to pick someone who is capable of walking in and speaking to the Russians. It can’t be someone whom the Europeans regard as pro-Russian and it can’t be a Russophobe with whom the Russians will refuse to talk. These two sets appear to be to be disjoint (A∩B=∅).

Hence, Europe is at an impasse diplomatically. Meanwhile, the Europeans can’t stop themselves from giving drones and rockets to the Ukrainian. This further irritates Russia and causes it to accelerate the axe-sharpening. That is because there is money in drones and rockets and money is more important than self-preservation.

This is something of a refrain. Such behavior is certainly foolish, and this bring to mind an old saying: “A fool and his money are soon parted.”

Outside of the United States and Europe lies a geopolitical terra incognita — the vast domain of other civilizations (Persian, Chinese, Russian, Indian, etc.). They are older than the West and different from it and therefore far too complex for a short online article or an hour-long online interview, remaining inscrutable. Any attempt to comprehend these other civilizations from the Western point of view turns, at best, into a futile quest to weigh objects using a ruler or to bail water with a sieve or, at worst, into an exercise of projecting the shadow (“…a Jungian psychological defense mechanism where an individual unconsciously attributes his own disowned thoughts, impulses, or unacceptable character traits to someone else.”) Someone should write a succession of weighty tomes on this subject. But then, would anyone bother to read them when everybody is too busy watching online videos?

[…]

Via https://boosty.to/cluborlov/posts/7e5414dc-f03d-4e95-a956-e4beeea719aa