(Photo credit: AFP)The Cradle
JUL 21, 2026
Recent intelligence assessments have determined that Tehran retains significant missile capabilities despite the US-Israeli war
A new US intelligence assessment says continued military attacks against the Islamic Republic are “unlikely to move” Tehran or “soften its position” in any upcoming negotiations, officials told the Washington Post on 21 July.
The CIA report highlights that Iran “is unlikely to feel significant impact” despite heavy US airstrikes.
“Tehran and Washington are, for now, stuck in an indefinite limbo between peace and war,” say the officials familiar with the new assessment.
The assessment reportedly reveals the “dilemma” US President Donald Trump is facing as a result of the US-Israeli war launched against Iran in February.
Former deputy US national intelligence officer Jonathan Panikoff questioned Trump’s strategy in comments to the Washington Post.
“The Trump administration appears to believe that if it keeps hitting Iran harder militarily, Tehran eventually will become more flexible. That assessment is almost certainly incorrect,” he said.
The report comes amid the latest exchange of fire between US and Iranian forces.
Tehran retaliated to Washington’s 10th consecutive night of heavy strikes early on Tuesday, hitting US military assets across Jordan and multiple Gulf states.
Iran’s recent retaliatory responses have inflicted significant casualties on US forces, particularly in Jordan.
Several US service members have been reported dead or missing, while dozens were injured as a result of Iranian missile strikes.
Multiple helicopters were destroyed as well, according to the New York Times (NYT).
In April, CNN cited intelligence assessments as saying that Tehran “maintains significant missile launching capability” despite US-Israeli attacks.
One of the sources said Iranian forces are “still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region.”
Just over a week after the war began, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) cited an intelligence assessment saying that Washington’s plan to implement regime change in Iran is “unlikely” to be successful.
Iran has reiterated all its conditions in the Islamabad MoU, which both parties have declared void.
The MoU included clauses on joint Iranian–Omani management of the Strait of Hormuz and a full ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, among other provisions.
In recent days, Trump has renewed threats to destroy all of Iran’s power stations, bridges, and energy infrastructure.
“If recent threats made by the US president … to target Iran’s infrastructure … are carried out, then everything that has remained intact … that is, all the [US] infrastructure in the region – will be crushed by the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the Iranian army said on 16 July.
“There will be no trace of it left, as if it never existed,” it added.
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