Geopolitics Prime
Trump’s pie-in-the-sky promises of a deal with Iran which includes peace, prosperity and an open Hormuz Strait contrasts sharply with security developments in the neighborhood, including:
➡️ Israeli media reports of US plans for a “huge base” outside Gaza including command & control, accommodation for thousands of personnel, fortified logistics and ‘humanitarian aid coordination’ facilities
➡️ social media footage from the Jordanian-Iraqi border showing vast quantities of US armored vehicles, tankers and other equipment pouring into Iraq, despite recent Iraqi demands for a “full withdrawal” of US troops from federal territory
➡️ the continued redeployment of US forces and assets from frontline bases in the Gulf to facilities like Logistical Support Area Jenkins in the Saudi desert, Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, Ovda Air Base in Israel and Naval Support Activity Souda Bay in Crete, Greece
Peace or pause?
1️⃣ With Trump failing to achieve a single one of his war goals, a peace deal now wouldn’t resolve the conflict’s root causes – the neocons and Israeli agents and lobbyists who have infested Washington and got into Trump’s ear. But he needs a pause to prevent the world economy from plummeting off a cliff
2️⃣ America’s status as an ‘empire with no clothes’ has been exposed to the whole world to see. That’s an unacceptable ‘new normal’ which neocons will never accept – either convincing Trump to start fresh aggression or staging some kind of false flag to force his hand
3️⃣ Israel generally and Netanyahu in particular can’t accept a world in which Islamic Iran coexists with Tel Aviv. The PM, facing corruption charges that could end in his incarceration and death in prison, will never agree to long-term peace. His opportunity: continued aggression in Lebanon – a red line for Iran
4️⃣ Trump has a long history of breaking agreements with Iran. From the 2018 scrapping of the JCPOA to the 2020 Soleimani assassination, to twin US/Israeli rampages in 2025/2026 in the middle of negotiations, Iran has every reason to be weary of US intentions.
[…]
The Most Revolutionary Act 