By Larry C. Johnson | SONAR21 | June 16, 2026
Let’s give Donald Trump credit for one thing… He kept his word and lifted the US blockade on Iranian ships and Iran is going to town with its oil tankers moving in and out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.
This does not mean that the MOU with Iran, which is supposed to be signed in Geneva on Friday, will hold, but it is a step in the direction of de-escalation. So the question we ought to ask is why did Donald Trump blink and accept the proposal that Iran proffered way back in April?
I think there are several reasons, but the principal one is that the US is running out of oil, which means Trump will not be able to artificially suppress the price of gasoline. US strategic oil reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1983, reports CNN. The decline comes amid continued drawdowns to mitigate the impact of the conflict with Iran. Reserves have dropped to 340.3 million barrels, last seen during the Reagan administration, which was still building the stockpile. US daily consumption is 20 to 21 million barrels in 2026, which means the reserve can supply 17 days of gasoline, which falls on July 1st.
Donald Trump may be in mental decline, but he still retains enough smarts to understand that an oil shortage and soaring prices of gasoline in July is politically untenable.
Another factor is that US installations and aircraft in the Persian Gulf took a helluva beating last week. The US attacks on Iranian installations in the Strait of Hormuz on June 9 and 10 provoked a fierce Iranian response that hit targets in Iraq (CIA-bases supporting the Kurds), Kuwait (the Ali Al Salem airbase, Camp Buehring in northeastern Kuwait, as well as a makeshift operations center near the civilian port of Shuaiba), the Prince Saud Airbase adjacent to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the Mowaffaq Al Salti Airbase in Jordan. The attacks were devastating and reportedly employed some new Chinese missiles supplied to Iran.
Then there is the pressure from Gulf Arabs to end the attacks on Iran. Iran, backed by China, Russia and Pakistan, engaged in intense diplomacy with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The UAE, who has been a thorn in the side of Iran and Saudi Arabia and has been identified as an ally of Israel, sent a delegation to Iran on 9 June. Reuters reported that the UAE had agreed to release billions of dollars for Iran — two regional sources put the figure at $10 billion (including more than $3 billion already delivered), while two other sources put it at $20 billion, with the funds agreed in exchange for Iran halting attacks on the UAE. However, the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs categorically denied those reports, stating the allegations were “entirely false and unfounded” and that no frozen Iranian funds had been released, transferred, or facilitated through the UAE. What is undisputed is that the UAE sent a high-level delegation to talk to the Iranian government.
A high-level Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran on Wednesday, June 10, to hold talks on bilateral relations, regional developments, and diplomatic efforts to end the conflict between Iran and the United States. The delegation arrived at midday and the visit came after Trump accused Iran of stalling and said Tehran must now “pay the price.” AFP, citing an informed diplomat, reported the Qatari negotiating team had traveled to Tehran following consultations with American officials to help narrow remaining differences between the two sides.
A senior Pakistani source with access to information about Pakistan’s role in mediating the talks between the US and Iran, reported that Pakistan, with the encouragement of China and Russia, was making progress in its talks with the Saudis and the Qataris to stop hosting US military bases in their respective countries. These talks coincided with Saudi Arabia denying the US the use of its airspace to attack Iranian targets during Project Freedom.
Will the deal be signed on Friday? I remain skeptical simply because of the enormous Zionist backlash being visited on Donald Trump by angry Israeli officials and US politicians beholden to AIPAC. However, as I write this Monday night, the deal appears intact.
Why hasn’t Donald Trump released the text of the MOU? Two possible explanations (and I’ll be interested in what you think is the most plausible): 1) There are still areas of disagreement between Iran and the US and they are still trying to work out a compromise, 2) Trump does not want to provide the details beforehand fearing that the Zionist backlash could derail the Friday signing ceremony in Geneva. The diplomatic roller coaster is running full blast… It will be a wild ride until Friday.
[…]
The Most Revolutionary Act 