Pepe Escobar

While Israel increasingly isolates itself on the international stage, BRICS members Iran, Russia, and China are quietly coordinating a full-spectrum effort to support Palestine diplomatically and militarily.

The Global Majority is fully aware that the genocidals in Tel Aviv are trying as hard as they can to provoke an apocalyptic war – with full US military support, of course.

Contrast that combative mindset with 2,500 years of Persian diplomacy. Iran’s acting Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri Kani, has recently remarked how Tehran is trying hard to prevent “the Israeli regime’s ‘dream’ of triggering an all-out regional war.”

But one should never interrupt the enemy when he is in total panic. Sun Tzu would have approved this maxim. Iran certainly won’t interfere as the US and G7 members pull out all stops to come up with some semblance of a Gaza ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel to prevent a serious military retaliation by Iran and the Axis of Resistance.

Earlier this week, that warning bore fruit: Hamas representative in Lebanon, Ahmed Abdel Hadi, reported yesterday that Hamas will not show up at the tentative negotiation round on Thursday – today. The reason?

The clear climate is full of deceit and procrastination from Netanyahu, playing for time while the Axis prepares a response to the assassination of martyrs [Hamas Politburo Chief Ismail] Haniyeh and [Hezbollah Military Commander Fuad] Shukr… [Hamas] will not enter into negotiations that provide cover for Netanyahu and his extremist government.

So the waiting game, actually a masterclass of strategic ambiguity to rattle Israel’s nerves, will persist. Beneath all the cheap drama of the collective west begging Iran to not respond, there is a void. Nothing is offered in return.

Worse. Washington’s European vassals – the UK, France, and Germany – issued a statement straight out of Desperation Row, where they “call on Iran and its allies to refrain from attacks that would further escalate regional tensions and jeopardize the opportunity to agree a ceasefire and the release of hostages. They will bear responsibility for actions that jeopardize this opportunity for peace and stability. No country or nation stands to gain from a further escalation in the Middle East.”

Predictably, not a single word about Israel. In this neo-Orwellian formulation, it’s as if the recorded history of the planet started when Iran announced it would retaliate for the assassinations of Haniyeh in Tehran.

Iranian diplomacy swiftly replied to the vassals, stressing its “recognized right” to defend national sovereignty and create deterrence against Israel, the real source of terrorism in West Asia. And crucially, emphasizing they “do not seek permission from anyone” to exercise it.

The heart of the matter predictably escapes western logic: If Washington had forced a Gaza ceasefire last year, the risk of an apocalyptic war convulsing West Asia would have been avoided.

Instead, the US on Wednesday approved a further $20 billion weapons package to Tel Aviv, showing exactly how committed the Americans are to securing a permanent ceasefire.

Palestine meets the BRICS

The Israeli provocations, especially the assassination of Haniyeh, were a direct affront to three top BRICS members: Iran, Russia, and China.

So, the response to Israel implies a concerted articulation of the trio, deriving from its interlocked comprehensive strategic partnerships.

Earlier on Monday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi took a crucial phone call from Iranian Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani, during which he adamantly supported all of Tehran’s efforts to ensure regional peace and stability.

It also signals Chinese support for an Iranian reaction to Israel. Especially considering that the assassination of Haniyeh was seen in Beijing as an unforgivable slap to its considerable diplomatic efforts, taking place only a few days after the Hamas chief, alongside other Palestinian political representatives, signed the Beijing Declaration.

Then, on Tuesday, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at his Novo-Ogaryovo residence in Moscow. What Putin told Abbas is a gem of an understatement:

It is well known that Russia today, unfortunately, must defend its interests, defend its people with weapons in its hands, but what is happening in the Middle East [West Asia], what is happening in Palestine – certainly does not go unnoticed.

Yet there is a serious problem. The US- and Israeli-backed Abbas is like some sort of broken reed, enjoying scarce credibility in Palestine, with the latest polls revealing that 94 percent of West Bankers and 83 percent of Gazans demand his resignation. Meanwhile, less than 8 percent of Palestinians blame Hamas as responsible for their current, horrible plight. Overwhelming trust is placed in the new Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar.

Moscow is in a complex position – trying to boost a new political process in Palestine with its instrumental tools of statesmanship, in a much more forceful way than the Chinese. Yet Abbas is resisting it.

There are some auspicious angles, though. In Moscow, Abbas said that they had discussed BRICS: “We have reached a verbal agreement that Palestine would be invited in the ‘outreach’ format,” and expressed hope that:

A particular format of a meeting could be organized and it will be devoted exclusively to Palestine, so that all countries would voice their views on the developments that are taking place … It will all be as relevant as possible, considering the fact that the countries of this association [BRICS] are all friendly to Palestine.

That, in itself, is a significant Russian diplomatic victory. The optics of Palestine being placed among the BRICS for serious discussions will have an immense impact all across Muslim states and the Global Majority.

How to calibrate a deadly response 

On the bigger picture – the Axis of Resistance’s response to Israel – Russia is also deeply involved. Recently, a stream of Russian aircraft landed in Iran, reportedly carrying offensive and defensive military hardware, including the game-changing Murmansk-BN system, capable of jamming and scrambling all sorts of radio signals, GPS, communications, satellites, and electronic systems up to 5,000 kilometers away.

This is the ultimate nightmare for Israel and its NATO helpers. If deployed by Iran, the Murmansk-BN electronic warfare system can literally fry the whole Israeli grid, which is only 2,000 kilometers away, targeting military bases and also the electric grid.

If Iran’s response intends to really go off the charts – teaching the occupation state an epic, unforgettable lesson – that might feature a combination of the Murmansk-BN and new Iranian hypersonic missiles.

And perhaps some extra Russian hypersonic surprises. After all, Secretary of the National Security Council Sergey Shoigu recently went to Tehran to meet with Iranian Chief of Staff Major General Bagheri, exactly to round up the finer points of their comprehensive strategic partnership, including in the military field.

Major General Bagheri even let the BRICS cat out of the bag when he said, “We will welcome the tripartite cooperation of Iran, Russia, and China.” That’s how civilization-states unite in practice to combat the Forever War ethos built into the Western “democratic” plutocracy.

As much as Russia and China are supporting Palestine and Iran on several levels, it’s inevitable that the focus of the Forever Wars is now turned against all of them. Escalation is rampant across the board – in Ukraine, Israel, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, plus color revolutions from Bangladesh (successful) to Southeast Asia (aborted).

Which brings us to the key drama in Tehran: how to carefully calibrate a response that will make Israel regretful, but not lead to bleeding wounds from Iran to Russia and China.

The overarching clash – between Eurasia and NATOstan – is inevitable. Putin himself revealed it in stark terms when he said, “Any peace talks with Ukraine are impossible as long as it conducts strikes on civilian populations and threatens nuclear power plants.”

The same applies to Israel in Gaza. “Peace talks” – or ceasefire negotiations – are impossible while Gaza and sovereign nations such as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen are being shelled at will.

There’s only one way to deal with it: militarily, with smart force.

Iran, in consultation with strategic partners Russia and China, may be trying to find a third way. Project Israel is practically shutting down its own economy to safeguard the occupation state from a deadly response by Iran and the Axis of Resistance.

So Tehran may be pushing Sun Tzu to the limit – the waiting game, the psy ops, the unbearable strategic ambiguity – forcing Israeli settlers to stew in their underground bunkers until the whole, across-the-board, coordinated strategy is in place to deliver a killer blow.

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Via https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/08/15/how-a-brics-trio-is-staring-down-israel/