Dmitry Orlov

As we close out 2023, we are not quite ready to close out the conflict in the former Ukraine; however, what we can say is that the US/NATO strategy of arming, training and politically supporting the Kiev régime in its fight against its own Russian citizenry and, by extension, against Russia itself, is a resounding failure.This fact has been recognized even (even!) in Washington, as evidenced by a recent New York Times editorial by Serge Schmemann.

Clearly, it is time for the US to do the traditional “declare victory and go home” routine, then memory-hole the country in question, be it Afghanistan or the former Ukraine, pretending that it no longer exists. In the case of the former Ukraine, that might be somewhat accurate, since the new name for much of it is going to be Russian Federation. Still, given what’s been happening, that seems like quite a trick.[…]

• The Kiev régime should not attempt to win back territory from Russia; that is no longer a suitable indicator of “victory”.

• Reach a cease fire somehow, then use the time to rebuild the Westernized Ukrainian state.

• Do not engage Russia in a war of attrition since it would offer no opportunities for “victory” but plenty opportunities for defeat (without finger quotes) since Russia is bigger, stronger and better organized.

• Zelensky should stop being so Russophobic and try reaching out to Putin.

• A cease fire on Russia’s term is a temporary “victory” for the Ukrainian side, but not for Putin.• Since aid from the US is running out, the Kiev régime should hurry up with the negotiations, or at least give them a try, just to see what Putin’s mood is.

[…]

• The Special Military Operation will continue until the Ukrainian troops are fully disarmed and the Ukrainian state abandons the ideology of neo-Nazism.>• The overthrow of the ruling neo-Nazi regime is the most important and essential goal, which must and will be reached.

• The cities of Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaev and Kiev are Russian cities, which, along with a score of others, are temporarily occupied by the Ukrainian régime, and will be liberated.

• Wide-ranging discussions with representatives of the Ukrainian régime are quite possible and Russia has never ruled them out. They are not time-limited and can continue up until the neo-Nazi NATO troops are shattered and capitulate.

[…]

What victory generally means for your average Russian is Cossacks on parade on the streets of Paris or the Red Army putting up a victory flag on top of the Reichstag in Berlin. What “victory” means to the US is quite different: it means freezing the conflict at a point in time when its costs and risks start to outweigh its financial benefits.

If you examine the US end-games in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Libya, the permanent impasse with regard to North Korea and Iran and the present stupor in confronting Yemen, it becomes clear that what “victory” means to the US is an opportunity to maintain a hostile stance, perhaps with some ineffectual military action now and again, without risking a large financial loss, never mind a humiliating defeat and capitulation.

Now let’s introduce another dimension to this bit of strategic multivariate calculus: by now, the Russian side knows full well what “victory” (in finger quotes) is and is willing to dangle a diplomatic carrot in front of the (bipartisan) Washingtonian donkey virtually forever while simultaneously applying the military whip to its hide by developing new weapons systems against which the US has no countermeasures. What’s more, the Russian side appreciates full well that a rapid, overwhelming military victory over the pathetic remnants of the Kiev régime would be a tactical victory for Russia but would not be a strategic one.

Recall, if you will, that Russia won World War I; but does anyone remember or celebrate that victory? The Russians definitely don’t want any more victories like that one!

Let us set all political rhetoric aside and appreciate the task Russia has before it. It has to reabsorb some number of once and forever Russian but currently alienated territories — the abovementioned cities of Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaev and Kiev, as well as many others, along with their surrounding countryside. On the plus side, they are still Russian — Russian-speaking, culturally Russian, historically Russian — making them easy to reintegrate.

On the minus side, they are horribly run down (virtually all of the infrastructure needs to be repaired or rebuilt after close to half a century of malign neglect) and a large part of the population is, by Russian standards, subpar and needs to be brought up to speed on what it means to be Russian in 2024 in terms of law and order, speech and demeanor, professional standards, etc.

To top it off, some of the population is actually armed and hostile, and absorbing it would be like eating a meal of odori ebi, or “dancing shrimp,” a Japanese sashimi delicacy featuring live shrimp, where the shrimp are shooting at you and trying to blow you up rather than just squirming around and trying to escape as you try to pick them up with chopsticks and chew them to death — or swallow them live and feel them tickle on the way down (go ask a Japanese person about the proper etiquette).

Since the Kiev coup of 2014, Russia has largely rebuilt Crimea and is very busy rebuilding Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, making them into showcases that the residents of other formerly Ukrainian regions can regard with a mixture of envy and pride when considering their options. Russia is already at record-low unemployment and has to keep an eye on inflation to make sure that its economy, which is growing nicely, doesn’t overheat. To this end, the rate of reabsorption of briefly Ukrainian Russian lands has to be moderate: Nikolaev and Odessa might be engulfed and devoured in 2024, Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk in 2025, Kiev in 2026… (I am just making this up, mind you!)

The best way to do it is to have it move to Russia. To this end, the reabsorption point for Ukrainians is Sheremetyevo Airport, Moscow, where anyone with a Ukrainian passport (expired passports are accepted) is subjected to a barrage of probing questions that include a survey of their interactions on social media to establish that they do not harbor hostility toward or have engaged in hostile acts against Russia.

Most people make it through, find a job, eventually get a Russian passport and go on to enjoy life in a stable and prosperous society which welcomes them as one of its own. A minority (those who have either voiced or given support to the Kiev régime) are sent back to wherever they came from. This procedure has been in place since mid-October of 2023 and hundreds of thousands of people have been admitted since then.Where does this leave Schmemann’s “victory”? In his strained yet vacuous imagination, I suppose.

One more thing to add is that the Washingtonian neocon donkey — the one with a diplomatic carrot being dangled before it while it is being flogged with the military whip — is also being methodically starved to death, slowly at first, then all at once. Its main source of sustenance is debt, made possible by the reserve status of the US dollar, and it is fading away. Give it some more time, and the Washingtonian neocons will sail into the sunset on a suffocating, fetid wave of rancor and mutual recrimination.

[…]

Via https://boosty.to/cluborlov/posts/c592f5af-b427-4694-b6ac-f6b3ec1a20c8