Dmitry Orlov

On March 29, 2022, Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the end of the first stage of the special military operation in the Ukraine, explaining that the main focus of Russia’s army will now be on achieving the main goal of the operation: the liberation of Donbass. The battle for Donbass will largely determine the future of of the territory that is currently known as the Ukraine. It will also have a significant impact on the rest of Europe and on Russia. If all goes well, there will be a wide assortment of Ukrainian Nazi flags to toss at the foot of the Lenin Mausoleum on the Red Square in Moscow during Victory Day parade on May 9, 2022, echoing the one held on May 9, 1945. But we are not quite there yet, and here is how it is all likely to go down over the next couple of weeks.

To prepare, the Russian army had to drastically reduce its presence in the Kiev and Chernigov regions, which border Belarus, as confirmed by the Ukrainian side. The freed-up units are being redeployed to the Sumy and Kharkov regions, closer to Donbass.

It is important to keep in mind Putin’s words that the special operation does not presuppose an occupation of the Ukraine. The Russian army successfully used the daring capture of Gostomel airport near Kiev and the continuous threat of an amphibious assault near Odessa to tie down the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces. Thanks to such widely dispersed actions during the first stage of the special operation, the Ukrainian forces were largely deprived of access to the Russian border and were unable to concentrate forces in any one direction for launching a counterattack while they could still have done so.

And now they no longer can. In less than a month, the Ukraine’s military infrastructure and industry have been almost completely destroyed, as confirmed by the Ukrainian side. The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 30 thousand people, 65% of armored vehicles, 40% of artillery and rocket launch rocket systems, and 62% in aviation. The Russian army accomplished this while being numerically inferior. According to expert estimates and statements by Ukrainian officials, the Russian force numbered approximately 150 thousand people, against 250 thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and 50 thousand soldiers of the Ukrainian National Guard, plus the border guards and various other special forces. In addition, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said that from February 24 to February 26, another 100 thousand people have been drafted, and now there is a second wave of mobilization.

Of course, the Russians had an advantage in aircraft and missiles that covered the entire territory of Ukraine, but it is obvious that the size of the Russian group is not enough to fully control the previously occupied territory. Keep in mind that just the length of the Russian-Ukrainian border is 3,000 kilometers! According to the classical concepts of warfare, the attackers should have a threefold advantage over the defenders while in this case the situation is almost the exact opposite. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Russian military is now being redeployed in order to encircle the Ukrainian forces massed in Donbass, which at the beginning of the operation numbered about 70,000 people. The liberation of Donbass is one of the main goals of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine, and it can now proceed as planned.

The Ukrainian side understands this perfectly well and is shifting soldiers and equipment to Dnepropetrovsk region, forming a fortified area in Pavlograd. They did not have time to form a new line of defense in the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration, so they are planning to use the larger city of Pavlograd, where they can hide behind a

Meanwhile, the forces of Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics are already attacking the Donbass grouping of Ukrainian troops, in the areas of ​​Maryinka, Avdeevka, Severodonetsk and Rubizhne, methodically smashing through a defensive line which the Ukrainians had been working on for 8 years. But this advantage may yet be lost if the Ukrainians throw all of their remaining reserves at stopping their advance.

And if they don’t succeed, the battle for Donbass may quickly turn into a rout. It is important to understand that the line of encirclement west of Donbass, roughly between Izyum and Ugledar, runs across 160 kilometers of open steppe, without any large cities, while Pavlograd is some 100 kilometers from the line of probable encirclement. This makes it rather easy for the Russian forces to detect and destroy any large movement of troops or equipment from a safe stand-off distance. Thus, there is a great chance of success in destroying the Ukrainian grouping in Donbas.

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