The Chip Shortage Looks Like the Oil Shortage of the 1970s. What It Means for Stocks and the Economy

The longer the chip shortage goes on, the more prices will rise in all types of products. That will benefit chip makers such as Intel (INTC) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). Wall Street sees upside in the latter.

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President Joe Biden introduced a plan for $50 billion in chip research earlier this year.Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg

By: Al Root/Barron’s

Semiconductors might be the new oil—and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.

Back then, the world ran on oil—and any change in supply had a massive impact on demand. When OPEC embargoed the U.S. in the 1970s, the price of crude rose from about $3 a barrel at the beginning of the decade to $13 a barrel by its end. The U.S. even issuedgas ration coupons in 1974.

The spike was good news forChevron andExxon Mobil, which returned roughly 100% and 70%, respectively, in the 1970s, but painful for everyone else, as inflation raged. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 17% and 5%, respectively, over the decade.

If oil was the necessary component for the 1970s economy, chips provide the same function…

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