Stanford study says fossil-fueled cars will vanish in 8 years as ‘big oil’ collapses

Posted: May 26, 2017 in Uncategorized

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The cost per mile for electric vehicles will be 6.8 cents, rendering petrol cars obsolete. Insurance costs will fall by 90 per cent. The average American household will save $5,600 per year by making the switch.

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Source – business.financialpost.com

“…The cost per mile for EVs will be 6.8 cents, rendering petrol cars obsolete. Insurance costs will fall by 90 per cent. The average American household will save $5,600 per year by making the switch. The US government will lose $50 billion a year in fuel taxes.“Our research and modelling indicate that the $10 trillion annual revenues in the existing vehicle and oil supply chains will shrink dramatically,” Prof Seba said”:

Stanford study says fossil-fueled cars will vanish in 8 years as ‘big oil’ collapses

A new study published by Stanford University suggests that fossil-fueled cars will vanish within eight years – and citizens will have no choice but to invest in electric vehicles or similar technologies. This is because the cost of electric vehicles – including cars, buses, and trucks – will ultimately decrease, resulting in the collapse of the petroleum industry.

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Comments
  1. marblenecltr says:

    Great idea overdue, but how would the electricity that is to charge the batteries be generated, and what will we do with the used batteries?

    • Good question, marblenecltr. To be cost effective and eco-friendly, the electricity would need to be generated renewably and locally, to avoid loss of power via grid inefficiency. You have a point about the batteries. These would have to be designed in such a way they could be retrofitted and re-used.

  2. Hopefully the electricity needed to fill electric cars will come from solar or wind. Holland already is phasing out Petrol and Diesel cars by 2020.

  3. America will be the last hold out in this and that is a fact. Our government absolutely demands that there be a never ending supply of oil and a never ending need for oil and so why else are we steadily sending soldiers to fight in oil rich countries? Surely not to just turn around and see the end of oil? Surely not! Say it ain’t so.

    In my opinion, it could not happen fast enough, but what will replace it, the jury is still out on whether the alternative will be beneficial seeing as how people are already questioning how to get rid of old, worn out batteries and the need to rev up and rejuvenate antiquated power grids.

    • I definitely share some of your concerns, Shelby. Personally I think electric cars are going to be a relative luxury reserved for people who are fairly well off. I think a lot more money and energy needs to be invested in ramping up public transportation systems for low and middle income people.

      As for the grid, that needs to be phased out along with fossil fuel cars and replaced with locally produced distributed energy. As Nick Rosen writes in Off the Grid, large national grids are notoriously inefficienct and lose a lot of power in transmission. Rosen maintains they weren’t developed for the purpose of providing a regular supply of electricity to more people – but to enhance the sale of electrical power and appliances:

      https://stuartjeannebramhall.com/2015/09/09/going-off-the-grid/

  4. peteybee says:

    The idea is in the right direction but this particular paper was written by someone who has never owned a car (neither petrol/diesel nor electric). For example, their lifetime is not dictated by wear of the engine. There considerable hype here, just as there was with corn ethanol, hydrogen fuel cells, and CNG/LNG.

    In the case of mass adoption of electric vehicles, there are going to be obstacles in terms of power transfer rate when fueling the vehicles, which imply a fueling use pattern that is not compatible with solar: You can recharge your vehicle at home slowly at night, but then solar is not available. Or you can recharge your vehicle quickly during the day but then you will need to construct special parking garages with chargers in each parking spot, and each of these garages will have the electric service requirements of a small city. Replacing all existing fueling stations with fuel transfer rates equivalent to diesel/petrol is out of the question entirely if you work out the energy balance.

    https://spreadanidea.wordpress.com/2017/05/18/what-if-we-all-had-electric-cars/

  5. Thanks for your comment, Petey. You raise some good points. But as in Holland, electric vehicles are immensely popular in New Zealand – perhaps because petrol is so expensive here. Here most of the electricity we use is renewably produced – mainly through hydro and wind power – though solar uptake is increasing. Electric cars seem most practical for short car trips, which account for most of our car use here. I honestly can’t see any way electric cars are going to be practical for long trips.

    As I mention to energy, I feel the energy on electric cars is somewhat misplaced. I would really rather see more money and energy invested in public transportation.

    • peteybee says:

      I couldn’t agree more. What most the world’s cities need, at least those with bad traffic, is better public transport. And that’s actually the best use case for electric vehicles and other alt-fuels like CNG/LNG. For transportation energy use in the US, the best thing to do would be to build rail and have more bus service- amazingly, we lag behind many poor countries in this.

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