Dmitry Orlov

As I write this, we are mere hours away from a momentous occasion: the release of Tucker Carlson’s big, long and uncut interview with Vladimir Putin, for which Tucker flew to Moscow, and over which the entire US/EU corporate media establishment has had its collective panties in a bunch for days now.

Interviews with Putin are very nice, especially if they are big, long and uncut. Putin doesn’t suffer fools gladly, which is why Mickey Mouse outfits such as CNN, MSNBC and, now, Fox, are not allowed past the giant, lavishly gilt, elaborately carved doors of the Moscow Kremlin. But Tucker is no fool; he is a journalistic force to be reckoned with. Still, an interview is an interview, and Putin will most likely say what he has been saying all along, perhaps with certain elaborations and embellishments.

The more conspiratorially minded geopolitical eggheads are reading more into this than just a quick trip for the sake of getting an interview. Tucker, they say, is a secret messenger. Who from? Why, Trump, of course! Now, what would Trump want to convey to Putin?

What Trump wants is to make sure to win the presidential election this fall, and a way to do that is to make Biden look not just bad but worse than dead and just as smelly. Trump would like a massive landslide, a Republican takeover of both houses of congress and a chance to sweep all Democrats out of every single federal office.

And what Tucker may or may not want (he’s a cagey one) is a position as Trump’s vice president. Trump is old, you know, and old people, even if they are as sprightly and clear-minded as Trump is, do tend to drop dead at some point. And then it would be “Hello, President Carlson!” I bet Tucker likes the sound of that!

So the question is, What can Trump secretly offer to Putin that would make Biden look worse than a rancid donkey carcass that’s been gnawed on by some wild animals. The more conspiratorially minded geopolitical eggheads have been most obliging with a theory. Trump has a plan. In Phase I of this plan, Trump will block all aid to the Kiev regime until after the election by exercising his considerable influence over the republicans in the House of Representatives. This will leave the Ukrainian forces short of munitions and ordnance, the Kiev regime short of money, and provide an opening for the Russians to grab as much territory as they can. Over the summer, the constant media drumbeat of exotic-sounding Ukrainian regions suddenly turning Russian will do the trick, making the Ukrainian fiasco look much, much worse than the Afghanistan fiasco or the Middle Eastern fiasco.

And then, the conspiracy theory goes, once Trump, perhaps with Tucker in tow, skip and whistles back into the Oval Office, it will be time for Phase II: strike a peace deal with Putin. Russia will be graciously allowed to keep all the Ukrainian regions it manages to grab before then while US/NATO gets to keep the rest. And, this theory goes, Putin will jump at the opportunity to declare victory, make nicey-nice with the mighty US and all will be sweetness and light for Trump, who will then be able to concentrate on… Taiwan, of course.

I see just a couple of problems with this plan: one with Phase I and another with Phase II. As far as Phase I, for Putin and the Russians, the former Ukraine is more already in the bag strategically, but tactically it is a gift that keeps on giving. Why limit its use to just making Biden look like a rancid donkey carcass that’s been gnawed on by some wild animals? Why not extend the Ukraine operation by a few years, letting it bleed resources out of both the US and the EU while making Trump look like a rancid elephant carcass that’s been gnawed on by some stray dogs? After all, Russia’s strategy is to make sure that the US (along with the mini-me UK) no longer figure at all as a hegemonic power. The valuable target, for Russia, is not any particular president but the US presidency itself.

Also, Phase II is not exactly on strategy for Russia either. US and NATO had agreed, once upon a time, not to expand NATO “a single inch to the east”: that’s been fixed in writing now and the Russians won’t allow US/NATO to get away with not fulfilling this promise. And then there is the goal of Russia’s Special Military Operation in the former Ukraine: to demilitarize and denazify all of it, not just some of its regions. Lastly, the Russians see the Ukrainians as some Russians that have had their brains polluted with Western propaganda for three over decades. It is sad that so many of them — half a million or so — had to die on the battlefield. It would be even sadder if Russia has to mount some sort of blitzkrieg this summer in an effort to grab as much territory as possible before Trump gets into office and pulls the break lever on this wonderful deal.

If this is what Tucker is in Moscow to offer, I have a better plan for Russia. Putin should give vague verbal approval to Trump’s plan and perhaps even grab a couple more Ukrainian regions over the course of the summer (Odessa and Nikolaev are the big prizes strategically). But then right before the election Putin should reach out to Biden and quickly negotiate a cease fire, making it look like a major Biden victory and putting Trump’s plan in disarray. And then, once Biden is reelected, the Russians can go back to demilitarizing and denazifying at their usual snail’s pace, bleeding the US and the EU of resources and preventing the US from challenging China over Taiwan.

Of course, this is all just conspiracy theory. Tucker is just a journalist and he is in Moscow just to get a rock star interview with Putin, which Elon Musk is ready to monetize in all sorts of interesting ways. But it’s fun to think about such conspiracies, don’t you think?

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