Once you have scrambled the eggs, you’d better learn to like scrambled eggs. There are lessons learned and the behavior has changed. Resolving the Ukraine crisis poses such a predicament. 

However, in life everything is possible. With the election of Volodymyr Zelenskiy as the new president in Ukraine, things have become somewhat easier for Moscow and Kiev to recapture a past that can never quite be the same again. 

With 20/20 hindsight, Moscow was quietly pleased with the outcome of the Ukraine elections on April 21, which catapulted Zelenskiy to power with an overwhelming mandate of 73% of the votes. There were significant undercurrents.

Although none of the candidates campaigned for a Ukraine-Russia rapprochement or could be regarded as pro-Russia, the sharp divide in Ukrainian politics between the ‘pro’ and ‘anti-Russian’ camps had become blurred. A sort of mellowing of attitudes ensued. 

Pro-Russian support

The ‘pro-Russian’ candidates Yuriy Bykov and Oleksander Vilkul together secured 17% of the votes in the first round. In the run-off, Zelenskiy not only garnered these votes, but received his strongest support from the pro-Russian south and southeastern regions, which also registered the highest voter turnout.

Zelenskiy assiduously wooed the pro-Russian voters by using the Russian language to make direct appeals and by distancing himself from his predecessor Petro Poroshenko’s ‘Ukrainiasation’ policies. 

Zelenskiy’s victory signifies the empowerment of the regions that traditionally backed pro-Russian political forces. Donbas did not take part in the election. The most recent opinion polls suggest that this trend will continue in the forthcoming parliamentary election and the pro-Russian opposition bloc may emerge as the second biggest faction in the new parliament. 

Moscow is pinning its hopes on a dynamic situation. Valentina Matviyenko, the influential Kremlin politician and speaker of the upper house of the Russian parliament, told Tass on May 28 that Moscow was prepared to develop contacts with the new Ukrainian parliament.

She said: “We are ready for contacts, but without the policy of dictating, without any artificial, unnecessary conditions. Let’s start from scratch, analyze the current state of affairs and how we can remedy the situation and move ahead together. We are open to and ready for dialogue … and we are ready to work to restore and normalize Russian-Ukrainian relations […]